March and April are traditionally celebrated as the "Golden March, Silver April" peak season for the global textile industry. However, 2026 has brought a disturbing anomaly for fabric producers in China. Instead of ramping up for a surge in orders, many weaving mills are taking the rare step of cutting production or even implementing temporary shutdowns due to uncontrollable volatility in raw material prices.
Geopolitical tensions in West Asia—specifically military actions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have triggered a drastic spike in energy and chemical prices since late February. The impact was felt instantly in the polyester staple fiber and filament yarn markets, which experienced extreme price swings. In some instances, prices surged by as much as 2,000 yuan per metric ton in a single day, only to drop sharply and rebound again 24 hours later. This "roller coaster" environment has trapped factory owners in a state of profound uncertainty.
In major manufacturing hubs such as Shandong and Hebei, the phenomenon of reduced operating rates is spreading. Several small and medium-sized factories in Gaomi have already suspended operations or shifted from three work shifts to two to avoid deepening losses. The core issue lies in the inability of fabric producers to pass on these surging input costs to downstream buyers. While raw material costs have jumped by thousands of yuan, the price of grey fabrics has only managed marginal increases of 0.10 to 0.30 yuan per meter—far from enough to cover production overheads.
The situation is further complicated by disruptions in global logistics. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced several shipping companies to suspend new bookings on key routes, directly hitting textile exports to the Middle East. At a time when input costs are swelling, distribution channels are being choked, creating a risky accumulation of inventory that threatens to erode profit margins even further.
An executive at a polyester weaving mill stated that they prefer to maintain a cautious "wait-and-see" stance rather than continue production at the risk of bearing losses that downstream partners are unwilling to share. "We are in a position where we bear all the weight of price hikes but gain nothing when the market fluctuates so violently," they noted.
The future of the Chinese textile industry in the second quarter of 2026 now hinges largely on the developments in the Middle East. While markets are expected to eventually return to a more rational state, the shadows of energy crises and supply chain disruptions remain a very real threat. For textile entrepreneurs, this year's peak season feels unusually cold, forcing them to prioritize survival over the ambition of volume growth.