A rare alliance of US mills, apparel importers, and retailers has proposed that tariff credits could double textile exports to the Western Hemisphere and create more than 56,000 jobs. On July 6, four trade organizations jointly requested the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) to allow companies to earn credits when purchasing US textiles or qualifying apparel from United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) partners.

The base credit would equal 20 percent of the garment's customs value, with an additional credit of either 30 percent of eligible US yarn value or 40 percent of US fabric value, which could offset Section 301 duties.

However, TexPro data reveals a starkly different reality, showing that relevant exports are shrinking, US supplier share is falling, and the observable non-US regional market stands at only $5.32 billion. While the coalition claims that 70 percent of US textile exports go to the Western Hemisphere—equaling $14.5 billion—and argues that credits could double them to $29 billion, this starting point cannot be reproduced from disclosed product definitions. TexPro records show that US exports across selected headings to Canada, Mexico, and six CAFTA-DR partners totaled $4.63 billion in 2025, marking a 23.9 percent contraction from $6.09 billion in 2019. Furthermore, yarn exports dropped 13.4 percent to $1.60 billion, and woven fabrics fell 7.1 percent to $870 million in 2025.

Additionally, across six regional markets with TexPro import records, US sales fell from $3.19 billion to $2.98 billion in 2025, cutting the US share from 42.7 to 35.9 percent while China's share rose to 28.9 percent. Non-US suppliers held $5.32 billion of this observed market, meaning doubling the selected US export base would require capturing roughly 87 percent of it. While tariff credits could serve as a credible lever to make regional sourcing more attractive, the promised $29 billion scale remains an unproven scenario requiring new factories, capital, labor, and dramatically expanded apparel production across the Western Hemisphere.